Premier League 2023-2024 – Predictions

With the closing of the Transfer Window (the time period to sign players from other clubs), it’s a perfect time to take a time machine to the end of next May and see how the final standings will unfold. This is our Premier League predictions: totally, for sure, 100% how the season will play out.¹

For anyone new to English Soccer, each team plays each other twice and the team with the most points (3 for wins, 1 for draws) wins the league. In addition, the top 4 teams qualify for a continental-wide tournament called the Champions League, worth huge stacks of greenbacks. The next couple of places, give or take, qualify for lesser European competitions. The bottom 3 teams, meanwhile, are relegated out of the division to the tier below, replaced by 3 teams coming up.

Let’s get our midfield engines revved up and take a peak:

Champions LEague Bound

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1. Manchester City (Last season: 1) – Not a real shocking or sexy pick. It is just hard to argue with how well-coached Pep Guardiola’s teams are, and the attack is just devastating: on top of the barely human-Erling Haaland, you have to do with Kevin de Bruyne, Julian Alvarez, Jack Grealish, Bernardo Silva, et al with Rodri pulling strings. I’m not sure the robots in that awesome Nike World Cup commercial a couple years back could stop that coming at you for 90 minutes.
   
2. Liverpool (Last season: 5) – I think this spot could go any one of a number of ways but I think Liverpool’s forwards are too good to have their uncertain midfield, even with Alexis MacAlister, from holding them back. I never bet against the zany Jurgen Klopp and Mohamed Salah’s brilliance and Darwin Nunez looks to be breaking out.
   
3. Arsenal (Last season: 2) – Most seasons I predict big shakeups in the top 4, but here I really can’t make an argument they won’t finish top 3. Even without Gabriel Jesus for a while yet, they still have solid options to choose from up top and Declan Rice will improve an already formidable midfield.
   
4. Manchester United (Last season: 3) – You heard it here first: this will be Jadon Sancho’s breakout year, making up for the forward line that falls behind the other “big clubs”. With Andre Onana manning the nets, and a burgeoning juggernaut of Lisandro Martinez-Raphael Varane at the back, this team is going to be a tough out.

Hunting for European Nights

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5. Brighton and Hove Albion (Last season: 6) – A team brilliantly constructed by Graham Potter and boosted further by Roberto de Zerbi, this squad has a surprising amount of depth that, despite Caicedo’s and MacAlister’s sales, they could pounce the Champions League places through the Premier League or by winning the Europa League. The key: can Ansu Fati live up to the hype and take pressure off Danny Welbeck and Evan Ferguson in the scoring department. Kaoru Mitoma is a beast.
   
6. Chelsea (Last season: 12) – If one of their many forwards can go on a heater, they will eventually bounce back big from last year’s insanity. Having not learned from last season’s pump-and-dump scheme approach to transfers, a bloated squad has meant Mauricio Pochettino is still looking for consistent lineups and tactics. Look for Enzo Fernandez to reach another level.
   
7. West Ham United (Last season: 14) – My pick for comeback team of the year, they massively underachieved with a good squad last year, only to rally at the business end; as a bonus, they ended a 50-plus year drought for a major trophy. David Moyes knows how to grind wins, and having retooled and arguably upgraded their midfield post-Declan Rice, they have it in them to challenge for Europe while challenging in Europe. What could kill them is the lack of depth up top: Antonio and Ings are not getting younger, and Jarrod Bowen is best as a winger.
   
8. Aston Villa (Last season: 7) – Unai Emery’s lads are showing no signs of trending down: Villa haven’t lost anyone irreplaceable and keep adding good, solid pieces to their puzzle. Oli Watkins is a breakout candidate for me, Moussa Diaby is a sneaky-great signing, and if Emery can coax a breakout season from someone like Emi Buendia, they could challenge for the Champions League despite wanting to put forth an effort in the Conference League this season.
   
9. Newcastle United (Last season 4) – A great starting 11 that may have overachieved last season with few injuries masking limited depth. Good pieces have been added, but with some notable losses as well, I am not sure they better depth in their squad than last year. Alexander Isak, if he stays healthy, can drag them up a couple places: he looks a star sooner rather than later. Focusing on the Champions League will knock them down some spots in the Premier League.

Aggressively Mid(Table)

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10. Tottenham Hotspur (Last season: 8) – I really wanted to put them outside the top 10: I think Spurs will utterly free-fall this year after losing Harry Kane. While Son is brilliant, Kane was the glue that keeps this otherwise mediocre and snake-bitten team together year after year. Richarlison hasn’t gotten firing, and Brennan Johnson may have the scoring load on his shoulders sooner rather than later. Ange Postecoglou has them looking good early, but I don’t think it’s sustainable.
    
11. AFC Bournemouth (Last season: 15) – this may be a gutsy pick, but I feel like every Bielsa or Bielsa-disciple led squad has one season where they punch above their weight by overwhelming their opponents for a year with their stamina, pressing, and aggression before being found out. This will be that one big season for Bournemouth, who have made a bold change at coach bringing in Androni Iraola while making smart, under-the-radar signings to strengthen their squad.
    
12. Crystal Palace (Last season: 11) – Palace are frustratingly predictable. Every season I think will be the one when the offense finally clicks and they compete for Europe. It never happens though; they just keep timeshares on positions 11-13 it seems. Losing Wilfied Zaha is a blow and coaching legend Roy Hodgson, won’t relegate or push this team on. Eberechi Eze will provide some moments of magic in another boring mid-table season and an underrated defense will keep them in almost every game.
    
13. Nottingham Forest (Last season: 16) – A hugely bloated squad still exists at the two-time European champions. I do think Steve Cooper is a great coach, and with a full offseason to integrate his squad further, and will push them on a little bit this year. Perhaps got a little bit weaker at the back, with my man Matt “The Burner” Turner manning the nets in lieu of the great Dean Henderson-Keylor Navas combo last year, but the forward room is better.
    
14. Brentford (Last season: 9) – Losing Ivan Toney to suspension hasn’t been a major issue so far. Yoanne Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo have manned the joint effectively, but teams have a lot less to fear playing them for the first half of the season. I’m not sure Thomas Frank has enough magic to coax another over-achievement from this Moneyball squad without him.

Watch the Trapdoor…

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15. Fulham (Last season: 10) – I have been big on Marco Silva going back to his Hull days; it was nice to see him backed and getting results. This is a group that is really at risk of a sophomore slump after losing their star striker, with replacement Raul Jimenez trying to recover form from a devastating injury. The poor guy just hasn’t been the same (and totally understandably!) following the cracked skull a couple of years ago. Holding onto Joao Paulinha may have saved their season.
    
16. Wolves (Last season: 13) – Julen Lopetegui worked some seriously under-reported wonders last season to save a pretty depleted squad. Just when they looked to be in massive trouble, Gary O’Neil may have been handed a huge lifeline with Sasa Kalajdzic looking a stud after missing all of last season through injury and Matheus Cunha playing with a major chip on his shoulder thus far. With only the bones of their great promotion squad left and with most new signings failing to make a big impact the last few years, that might just be enough in a season where the newly promoted teams are weaker than normal. Losing Nunes is a big blow to the midfield.
    
17. Burnley (Last season: Championship Champions) – Vincent Kompany looks to be a solid coach in molding, but can he adjust his principles for certain games, especially those involving the top tier clubs after they got pounded by Man City in last year’s FA Cup? Goals could be tough to come by. Shoutout the eternal Jay Rodriguez and Nathan Redmond, who feel like they have played for about 10 Premier League teams by now.

Toil and Trouble

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18. Everton (Last season: 17) – Man are they walking the tightest of ropes. The dramedy continues at Goodison, with the much maligned upper management team continuing to stumble around like the Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight. Sean Dyche is so good and deserves a chance to work with a more talented team just once so he could play something other then long-ball soccer. Abdoulaye Doucoure, Jordan Pickford, and Seamus Coleman seem trying to hold the whole operation together with Scotch tape; Beto or the injury-struggling Dominic Calvert-Lewin probably need at least 15 goals between them to have a shot. Here I think third time isn’t the charm and they fall out of the top flight for the first time since the 1950’s.  
    
19. Luton Town (Last season: 3^rd in Championship) – I didn’t think it was possible for a club smaller in size than Bournemouth to crack the Premier League floor, but Luton have done it! The old Kenilworth Road will be popping beyond its size, and a good coach in Rob Edwards will give them a chance. They have a lot of fight and will be up for the challenge, but I’m not sure there is a game changer that can shoulder the load and fire them to safety. Bonus points, though, for the fire orange unis.
    
20. Sheffield United (Last season: 2^nd in Championship) – A team that already couldn’t hang with Burnley last season then let their best players go away over the Summer. Paul Heckingbottom, another really good coach, has been put into an unsalvageable situation I fear, and it is hard trying to piece together where enough goals will come from to survive. A shame, because the coach and defense are good enough to survive in this league.

1. Definitely, maybe ↩︎