It’s that time of year. The leaves are turning, the nights are crisp, and seven hours of commercial-free football comes our way every Sunday. Some would even say it’s the most wonderful time of the year. It is certainly time for some NFL Power Rankings, which we have here just in time for kickoff. The writer welcomes being called out on Freezing Cold Takes come February! Let’s take a look, shall we?
Struggle Bus
#32 – Arizona Cardinals
2022 Record: 4-13
Even if Kyler Murray comes back sooner than expected, this has rebuild written all over it. See you next year.
#31 – Houston Texans
2022 Record: 3-13-1
Lovie Smith will be always be a legend in my mind for going for 2 to beat the Colts and lose the #1 draft pick, then riding off into the sunset on a luxurious white stallion to match his luxurious white beard. This year though, the Texans receiving corps is not looking too hot, which I think will impact the development of C.J. Stroud at QB. If – and this is the biggest if ever – the front office has another competent offseason to give Stroud some weapons, they could do damage in 2024.
#30 – Indianapolis Colts
2022 Record: 4-12-1
They won’t be good, but they will win this season’s Chicago Bears award for being a ton of fun to watch while simultaneously going 3-14. Anthony Richardson is going to be electric, but I think he needs some time to adjust to pro ball.
#29 – Carolina Panthers
2022 Record: 7-10
Look, I like Frank Reich. The Bills fan in me will always have a soft spot for him. But man, Steve Wilks had these boys rolling the second of last season despite trading their best player away. How can you not give him a shot? Bryce Young finds himself in the C.J. Stroud position of not having a ton of weapons to work with as a rookie, but their defense is good enough to keep them in games.
#28 – Washington Commanders
2022 Record: 8-8-1
Well, Dan Snyder has dipped town to enjoy whatever shady things he gets up on his yacht in international waters. But I have a hard time believing in a QB who has played one game. Ron Rivera has a great story of overcoming cancer, but his recent coaching record hasn’t been incredible. Maybe Chase Young stays healthy and has a breakout year?
Plucky Underdogs
#27 – Green Bay Packers
2022 Record: 8-9
The big question is will lightning strike a third time in a row for the Packers getting a franchise QB? Christian Watson cooks, as does their RB room, but Jordan Love remains a man of mystery without a high end supporting cast.
#26 – Las Vegas Raiders
2022 Record: 6-11
I’m afraid the legend of “All he does is win games” Jimmy G is going to come undone in the cursed clutches of Coach Josh McDaniels.
#25 – Cleveland Browns
2022 Record: 7-10
The elephant in the room is obvious Deshaun Watson, AKA Captain Happy Ending. While I don’t like to say anything bad about people, I’ll make an exception here. How that man avoided jail and received upwards of $200 million in guaranteed money is a sad indictment of lots of things in this world. He doesn’t seem to be too remorseful either.
On the football side of things, Watson looked like a downgrade to Jacoby Brissett last year. The rest of the team isn’t good enough to make up for that.
#24 – New England Patriots
2022 Record: 8-9
Bill O’ Brien is back with Darth Hoodie to cobble together an offense with Mac Jones at QB. Darth Hoodie is always good for a top-10 defense, which will keep them maddeningly competitive.
#23 – New York Giants
2022 Record: 9-7-1
Coach Brian Daboll is Him. The pride of the Lehigh Valley, Saquon, is healthy, producing, and should have gotten paid. The offensive line remains a weak spot going on about 20 years at this point. Kayvon Thibodeaux is a beast and a breakout star in the making.
#22 – Minnesota Vikings
2022 Record: somehow 13-4
They have Justin Jefferson, who is probably good for a win or two by himself. Their fate will be dictated by how many 1:00 PM games they have, a must when Kirk Cousins is QB1. They snuck so many wins last year I’m banking on a reversal this year.
Dalvin Cook was the New Man On The Minnesota Vikings though, so that’s cool. I hope he enjoys New England.
Ryan Fitzpatrick Memorial Almost-Made-the-Playoffs Tier
#21 – Dallas Cowboys
2022 Record: 12-5
Hot take time: they are due for a regression. Mike McCarthy is feeling the heat, taking over calling plays on offense, and his game management is usually good for an extra two ticks in the loss column every year.
#20 – Los Angeles Rams
2022 Record: 5-12
Doomed because of their salary cap situation, they will at least get some magical moments out of Stafford, Kupp, and Donald along the way. They just don’t have the depth to get much out of this year I fear.
#19 – Atlanta Falcons
2022 Record: 7-10
You heard it here first: the Desmond Ridder – Bijan Robinson combo is going to be rolling all season long. Their defense will struggle, though, keeping them in the middle of the pack.
#18 – Denver Broncos
2022 Record: Broncos Country, Let’s Ride!
DangeRuss is back, baby! Sean Peyton will bring a solid, competent level of coaching to the proceedings. Jerry Jeudy’s injury could be a problem for a passing attack seeking options. The defense, which flew under the radar in last year’s catastrophe, is the backbone of this team and will keep them competitive. Can Russell Wilson prove last year was fluke and get the Dangerwich back on the Subway menu? I’m on the fence.
#17 – Miami Dolphins
2022 Record: 9-8
Sticking them right in the middle because I have no idea where to put them. Tua was put in a great position to maximize his strengths and limit his weaknesses by mad-scientist coach Mike McDaniel. Waddle and Hill are deadly as a receiving tandem. Tua’s health is understandably a big concern after multiple concussions last year, and if one of the top receivers go down, can Tua lift the team on his own?
#16 – New Orleans Saints
2022 Record: 7-10
While never a superstar, Derek Carr brings a quiet competence to New Orleans. If Michael Thomas can stay healthy and get back to the player he was a couple of years ago, they could be a sneaky contender. A good draft to restock the defensive line could pay dividends, and Jamaal Williams is a touchdown machine of a running back to hold the fort down before Alvin Kamara comes back.
If the Stars Align
#15 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2022 Record: 8-9
Am I biased against Tom Brady from years of unrelenting, soul-destroying beatdowns by his Patriots teams? Yes. That said, I don’t think it’s a terribly hot take to say he wasn’t exactly world-beating at QB last year. Understandable, as someone in their mid-40s going through a well-publicized divorce. Yes, Baker Mayfield has a great deal fewer Super Bowl rings than his predecessor, but I don’t think the Bucs are going to fall off like most seem to. Mayfield has shown moments before especially when he has a chip on his shoulder, and should be fully healthy from that shoulder injury two years ago.
The bones of a Super Bowl team are still there: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are great, and in Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield Jr, they have some difference makers on the other side of the ball too. In a weak division, I think the Bucs shock the world and eke out the Saints for a playoff birth.
#14 – Detroit Lions
2022 Record: 9-8
The football world laughed at Dan Campbell when he proclaimed the Lions were going to start biting kneecaps, but it has led to this. For the first time in my lifetime, the Lions are division favorites. Can they handle newfound expectations? While Jared Goff has reinvented himself in Motown, it’s the defense that scares me the most. They struggle mightily last year, and a repeat performance may make the brilliance of Amon-Ra St. Brown and the offense moot.
#13 – New York Jets
2022 Record: 7-10
I question the validity of any ayahuasca-fueled underground silent retreat leading the individual to realize they belong with the New York Jets.
#12 – Tennessee Titans
2022 Record: 7-10
Man, are they a tough out. A hard-hitting, physical defense is one thing; Derrick Henry is another. He is not even 30 and has generally stayed healthy; I am still a believer, and think he has a lot of gas in those legs yet. They will be competitive as always, but they aren’t built to play from behind, which can be their undoing again.
#11 – Baltimore Ravens
2022 Record: 10-7
I want to believe in them so bad. Lamar Jackson is just a blast to watch play, and they are going to try to let him rip passes this year like never before. The jury is still out on if that is a masterstroke or their undoing. I root for him though and hope he pops off.
#10 – Los Angeles Chargers
2022 Record: 10-7
Holy smokes that playoff meltdown was something to behold. But with a team this talented, eventually things have to click. Right? RIGHT???
#9 – Chicago Bears
2022 Record: 3-14
In a weak NFC, this is the year Justin Fields balls out. Josh Allen, a quarterback with a similar amount of development to do coming out of college, took until year 3 to really flourish in the NFL. Guess what? It’s year 3 for Fields! He showed flashes last year what he can do, especially on the ground, with little-to-no help from the team. In the draft, they loaded up with DJ Moore, plenty of future draft picks, and some solid-looking contributors on defense through the draft on top of Tremaine Edmonds in free agency. Plenty of nonbelievers out there, but regardless the Bears will make it to the Division Round this year.
#8 – Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Record: 9-8
Trevor Lawrence had his baptism-by-fire and coming-of-age moments in the same game, that epic playoff comeback over the Bolts. Calvin Ridley is good pickup, too. The AFC is just so loaded that without a superstar at a skill position, I’m not sure they have enough to take a step forward.
#7 – Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 Record: 9-8
Kenny Pickett took a step forward the closing 4 weeks of last season. The defense is still nasty.
Never bet against Mike Tomlin. Ever.
#6 – Seattle Seahawks
2022 Record: Ain’t Write Back
If for nothing else, watching Geno Smith cook with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be incredible to watch. They might need to score 40+ a game to win with the defense a long ways from the Legion of Boom, but if Geno wasn’t a one-season wonder, is it really impossible?
Elite
#5 – San Francisco 49ers
2022 Record: a Purdy Good 13-4
I’ll eats my lumps: I kept expecting Purdy to hit a Brock wall, but it never happened. Dude’s never lost a game he was healthy for, and that counts for something. They also have the best coaching mind in the league in Kyle Shanahan, and offensive and defense weapons galore. If Purdy is even okay in a weak conference, it could be Eagles – 49ers deja vu in Janaury.
#4 – Buffalo Bills
2022 Record: 13-3
An emotionally exhausting season if there ever was one: a tragic, racially-motivated mass shooting in Buffalo, a devasting Lake Effect snowstorm leading to a game getting moved and the players exiting their houses on snowmobiles, and Damar Hamlin suffering cardiac arrest.
Through all that, Josh Allen played hurt. I think the trying couple of months finally caught up to them in the playoffs against Cincinnati. With Hamlin miraculously safe, healthy, and playing again, the talent is still there to make a run. The defense may struggle without Tremaine Edmonds, a criminally underrated contributor.
#3 – Cincinnati Bengals
2022 Record: 12-4
The Bengals are all in this season. Still with their trio of stud receivers JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd and Lou Anarumo cooking up defensive schemes, take them lightly at your own peril. Myles Murphy has potential written all over him on defense, Joe Mixon carries the rock well at RB, and Joe Burrow is Joe Burrow. Right in the window before the have to deal with trying to resign all their stars, it may be now or never for this squad.
#2 – Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Record: 14-3, Super Bowl champs
Are they in a tough division? Yes. Are they in the tougher conference? Yes. Are they possibly without Chris Jones, their best pass rusher? Also yes. Does any of it matter? Probably not – they have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Until that changes, can you really bet against them?
#1 – Philadelphia Eagles
2022 Record: 14-3, lost Super Bowl to Chiefs
Top to bottom, they have the best team in the league. They play in a weak division in the weaker conference. They added D’Andre Swift and Jalen Carter. Unless they have a hangover from their Super Bowl loss, look out!
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