It’s that time of year once again. International tournaments are wrapped up. Preseason rust has been shaken off. New faces continue to stream into new places. And for some (looking at you, City and Palace), court cases drag on that will cast a pall over their seasons. The Premier League is back!
After last season saw a new victor (finally!), some wild shenanigans in the races for European places, and a brutal showing from the promoted sides (for second year running!), let’s predict how this all shakes out come May, shall we?
Top of the Pile
Embed from Getty Images#1 – Liverpool
Betting against Man City, winners of 6 of the last 8 seasons, is a dangerous game. I had City, a wounded tiger if I’ve ever seen one, at the top of my initial list. But then I sat down and looked at the Summer transfer list. Adding Jeremie Frimpong, Florian Wertz, Milos Kerkez, and Hugo Ekitike is spectacular business for a squad already on top. Although Trent Alexander-Arnold will be missed, this is a squad with serious depth, serious firepower, and serious coaching. Back-to-back for the Reds.
Rest in peace, Diogo Jota.
Champions League Bound
Embed from Getty Images#2 – Manchester City
I have no doubts that City will have a major role to play in who claims the title come May. The squad is too talented and Pep Guardiola is too good of a manager to have them much lower. The transfer window will prove key – City need to snap up someone who hold down the fort in case Rodri misses significant time (he’s already out until mid-September!). If not, expect the same defensive frailties that plagued this team last year to return with a vengeance.
Total aside, but can we have some resolution to the court case involving their absurd 115 violations of Financial Fair Play? I know money talks, A LOT, but the fact that Everton and Nottingham Forest got slapped with points deductions not too long ago for much smaller violations while this has dragged on years is disappointing.
#3 – Chelsea
The reigning UEFA Conference League champs look to build on their 4th place finish a year ago and I think they will. Manager Enzo Maresca adapted well to life at a so-called “Big Club,” and stabilized them after the chaotic early years of Todd Boehly’s ownership team. Sensible signings have ruled the Summer, and in Liam Delap, I think they have a star on their hands. Anyone who can bang in double-digit goals for a relegated team instantly gets my attention.
While the goalkeeper position has some question marks for me, the maturing quality throughout the rest of the squad will keep them in the title hunt.
#4 – Arsenal
Another team who have spent well this Summer and loaded up for a title assault. Victor Gyokeres hopes to be the man to solve the Gunners long-running striker woes. Goalkeeper Kepa has really performed an impressive 180 from the errors and petulance that plagued his early career and is expected to boost an already solid defense, with stud midfielder Declan Rice an additional shield.
Why do I think they will drop a place? I don’t have a great answer; the vibes just seemed off at the Emirates Stadium last year, and manager Mikel Arteta is under a lot of pressure to deliver. I just don’t get the sense he is the man to push them to that next level…hopefully he proves me wrong!
#5 – Newcastle
This placement hinges solely on the basis they keep the disgruntled Alexander Isak. Without him, I have Villa vaulting the Magpies; in fact, I would drop them to around 8th without him. This is a team getting close to taking that next step, and to lose their talismanic striker would be a huge blow in both the goals and morale department. While they perhaps don’t have the depth (due to getting bought by oil money only after Financial Fair Play was enacted) of the top clubs, they do have a quality throughout and they can easily make another run at the Champions League. A title seems out of reach for a couple years yet.
A big shoutout goes to Joelinton, who has successfully reinvented himself from a misfiring forward into one heck of a holding midfielder. Good for him for persevering, and good for Newcastle for not giving up on the player.
The Fight For Europe
Embed from Getty Images#6 – Aston Villa
It was a heartbreaker for Villa at the end of last season, missing out on the Champions League by failing to beat a flailing Man. United on the final day. This is another ranking hinging on one player staying at a club, in this case goalkeeper Emi “Dibu” Martinez. While his howler against United proved ever so costly, world class keepers don’t grow on trees, and losing him would be cost a couple of extra goals a season.
Elsewhere, sensible signings have rounded out an already complete squad. Ollie Watkins rediscovered his form after the sale of Jhon Duran, and the midfield possesses steel and creativity in harmony. I love Unai Emery as a manger, and he balanced Europe and League responsibilities well last season. Don’t count them out in either competition this year, either.
#7 – Bournemouth
Here’s where I go against the grain a little. Bournemouth are a trendy pick to regress after their defense was gutted in the transfer market. But I’ll say this: I was a huge doubter of manager Andoni Iraola when he was first appointed. I expected another Bielsa disciple who would quickly get found out by the rest of the league. He has certainly proved me wrong, and I’m banking on a hunch that the loss of defenders will be easier to sort out than losing key attackers.
If the window shuts and Evanilson, Antoine Semenyo, and Justin Kluivert are still rocking red-and-black stripes, look out. These Cherries can still pack-a-punch.
#8 – Brighton
One of the most well-run clubs in the league, Brighton always seem to have a plan. Even as young stud after young stud gets sold to wealthier teams, Brighton seem to have the replacement already on hand more often than not. It works for them; they have been threatening the upper end of the table for a couple of years. Consistency keeps doing them in, often struggling against teams they really should beat.
It feels like more of the same from them; Joao Pedro the latest big name to leave, while a whole host of young guns enter the mix, including Sunderland folk hero Tommy Watson. Some grizzled vets are on hand to keep the ship steady, with Danny Welbeck and James Milner continuing to lace up their boots. Look for Kaoru Mitoma to return to his electric, pre-injury form this year.
Mid-Table Mediocrity
Embed from Getty Images#9 – Everton
Here’s a bold pick for the readers! As a known admirer of manager/West Ham legend David Moyes, I may be biased, but this is best Everton team in years with a manager who fits them like a glove. This has been a great Summer so far for the Toffees, who moved into a new stadium and have made some uncharacteristically great signings. Kiernan Dewsbery-Hall might have been the steal of the Summer coming over from Chelsea, and Thierno Barry looks like he could be the best striker to wear the shirt since Romelu Lukaku left the club. Even if Barry doesn’t come good immediately, there is less pressure on him due to a resurgent Beto banging in goals as well. A solid defense anchored by the oft-memed Jordan Pickford in goal balances out a decent squad.
For the first time in years, Everton fans can stop thinking about the relegation trap door.
#10 – Manchester United
This is the one team I have truly have no clue what to expect from. I doubt many United fans (including some of my family) do either. After years of changing coaches, philosophies, and transfer strategies seemingly at a whim, this jumbled mess of a squad needs major surgery. Credit where it is due, they have slowly trended in that direction this Summer, with Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbuemo being proven talents and team players at this level. Neither will rewrite the record books, but they can supplement the young sensation Benjamin Sesko, one of the best young strikers in the game. The old plan of “give the ball to Bruno Fernandes and hope he works some magic” appears to be tossed out for good. Good riddance!
Elsewhere, a huge question mark remains at goalie. If no reinforcements arrive, it is down to Andre Onana to finally show why United shelled out the big bucks for him years ago. Ultimately, I think they will be better than last year, but they have a long journey ahead of them to be the United of yore.
#11 – West Ham
After pretty much sitting last season out, the Hammers should slowly creep up the table a couple of spots. They are simply too talented not to. Brazilian maestro Lucas Paqueta should return to his old self after the cloud of match fixing has finally been cleared up. Jarrod Bowen remains underrated, a solid attacker that can play multiple positions. Niklas Fullkrug has generally been a productive striker as well in his career.
The issues I see here are a lack of depth, and a jarring lack of young blood to freshen up the squad, especially in the attack. This will be a respectable if unspectacular season in East London.
#12 – Fulham
As an American, it is hard not to have a soft spot for Fulham, who have consistently had a Yank in the squad since the early 2000’s. Right now, they have arguably the best of the lot: left back Antonee “Jedi” Robinson has grown into a genuine two-way game changer on the left. This is a team, led by an exciting manager in Marco Silva, that seems ready to kick on. Yet, there has been no investment this Summer, and a small squad may become stretched thin as the season wears on. I can’t imagine they will end up in any trouble, though.
#13 – Tottenham Hotspur
After falling a**-backwards into the Champions League by winning a Europa League pillow-fight against Man United, Spurs have proceeded to sell their talismanic forward Son Heung-Min. While Joao Palhinha should provide much needed steel at the base of the midfield, this is a team that had a porous defense and now lacks game changers in the attack. New manager Thomas Frank has his work cut out for him here: having to compete in the Champions League feels like it will be a detriment as he tries to stamp his authority on his new team.
#14 – Crystal Palace
All I’m going to say is that if it were Chelsea fighting multi-club ownership rules, I don’t think they would have been booted out of the Europa League as Palace will most likely be. Uncertainty has hampered plans for the season, as newcomers have been in short supply and manager Oliver Glasner is upset at the situation. While the club has thus far held onto their star players, the squad lacks depth and the vibes are not great at Selhurst Park. It’s a shame, too, because this should be a season of celebration for Palace who finally won a trophy after over 100 years of trying last year.
They have finished between 10th and 15th in each of the last 11 seasons, and there they shall remain.
#15 – Nottingham Forest
Losing Anthony Elanga is a huge blow, but it appears they will hold onto Callum Hudson-Odoi and Morgan Gibbs-White. So why the huge fall? A couple of reasons. This is not a deep squad, and they appeared to run out of gas right at the end of their epic run at the Champions League last year. In striker Chris Wood and keeper Matz Sels, they have 2 players coming off career years that seemingly came out of the blue. In my years of watching, repeating the feat after one outlying season late in a career is hard to do. Europe will be a fun experience for the team and its fans, a welcome return to the glory days of the late 70’s, but in the league I think Forest will come crashing back to Earth.
Surviving…Just Barely
Embed from Getty Images#16 – Brentford
After years of steady growth, the vultures struck this Summer at the Brentford Community Stadium. Coach Thomas Frank is gone, as is star forward Bryan Mbuemo; his counterpart Yoane Wissa might be following him out the door. That hole is the attack is going to be hard to patch; the pressure mounts on the trio of Kevin Schade, Mikkel Damsgaard, and Fabio Carvalho to reach new heights. With a rookie manager in Keith Andrews, this will be a season of turmoil, but with Caoimhin Kelleher manning the nets and a solid defense, they will have just enough to survive.
#17 – Wolves
Manager Vitor Pereira got a of lot of credit for turning around Wolves last season, and I still don’t think it was enough. He would have easily taken my vote for Manager of the Season. This squad, left barren from years of selling their best talent with little investment, looked dead and buried when they axed a solid manager in Gary O’Neil. Vitor, king of postmatch pub beers with fans, turned Wolves into one of the form teams of the second half of the year.
Once again, they must make due with a lost star, with the influential Matheus Cunha gone. I doubt the quality in the squad, but I no longer doubt Vitor. They will be safe.
Right Back Down
Embed from Getty Images#18 – Leeds United
It’s super lame to pick the 3 promoted teams to go straight back down, especially for the 3rd year in a row. Believe me, I tried to find a way to justify Leeds’ survival. I just couldn’t do it. The Whites are certainly giving it a go, having brought in 8 players so far. Lucas Perri is a key signing; he should be a massive upgrade in goal over Illan Meslier. Manager Daniel Farke, in his 3rd attempt to keep a promoted side up, has a team filled with high effort, high intensity players. Will they have enough quality in front of goal? That’s where I think they fall short.
#19 – Burnley
JJ Watt gets his second crack at the big time as part-owner of this fun, small-town team. Scott Parker, one of my favorite players to watch growing up, gets a third crack as a manager. Burnley are a fascinating team – they had one of the best defensive seasons in memory last year, somehow conceding only 16 goals in 46 games on the way to promotion. One of the key reasons why, goalkeeper James Trafford, has gone to Manchester City. While his replacement, Martin Dubravka, is solid, and picking up fullback Kyle Walker is a coup, the problem remains up the pitch. Like the other promoted sides (plus Brentford and Wolves), the attack looks toothless. They had trouble putting the ball in the net in the Championship; now they get to tackle Premier League-caliber defenses every week.
They do possess a solid midfield, with Josh Cullen and Hannibal Mejbri in particular crafty operators, but Burnley appear to be banking on formerly overhyped talents Armando Broja or Michael Obafemi hitting a new level. They will grind out some results, but I can’t see them winning many games.
#20 – Sunderland
My Premier League coming of age was the time when Sunderland were desperately staving off relegation year after year. Their luck finally ran out, and a brutal double drop followed (documented on Netflix!) The Black Cats are back though! Unfortunately, they woefully unprepared. The scorer of the goal that promoted them, Tommy Watson, was already on his way out.
They have pulled off some solid signings in the underrated Simon Adingra and the steely Granit Xhaka, but I have no idea where the goals will come from. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that without a reliable source of goals, your club is in trouble. Add to that a real lack of Premier League experience up-and-down the lineup and the situation looks grim. It will be a fun one-and-done from Regis le Bris’ squad; hopefully they stick with him and let him rebuild in the Championship.
